The Northwest PDP Presidential campaign flag off in Sokoto has come and gone, not however, without leaving impressions that portend a number of implications for the political landscape of the region and the nation as a whole. In the aftermath, gainers and losers occur in three categories
A major gain certainly comes to the PDP, whose electoral fortunes in the Northwest were initially viewed as dismal, owing to the impression of President Buhari’s cult following in the area. The unprecedented crowd that stood at Kangiwa Square venue of the event for over six hours, rooting to catch a glimpse of the personalities and listen to their message flies in the face of that assumption.
About three years ago, only a negligible few in Sokoto, Kebbi or Zamfara, not to mention Kano and Katsina, had the patience and tolerance to hear what the PDP got to say. Back in 2015, the party would be grateful to realize half of the welcome it got in Sokoto last Monday. That they can pull off this coup in what has all along been regarded as an exclusive APC territory, undoubtedly suggests a substantial shift in the balance of partisan sympathy in the area in favor of the PDP.
Conversely, the APC records an appreciable loss in this regard. A political party that regards loyalty as a matter of fact, in an area that produced the critical mass of votes for its victory in the last polls is certainly not realizing any profit from such expression of support for the opposition.
Individuals in the PDP also stood to gain from the Sokoto flag off. Chiefly among them is Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal. His highly rated showing in the last PDP presidential primary in Port Harcourt has pushed up Tambuwal’s political image above many of his contemporaries, who previously lay claim to higher profiles. The massive success of the event was another confirmation of his capacity and rising relevance in Nigerian politics. No matter how or why they were there, the fact that Tambuwal could get them there is a proof of his capability.
A man, whose political standing in Sokoto State was hitherto always attributed to his partnership with his predecessor, Tambuwal’s showing at the rally has cast away all doubt about his own pedigree as the leader of Sokoto politics.
For former President, Goodluck Jonathan, the Sokoto flag off was a clear indication of a turn in fortunes. Recalling the defeat of 2015, when Jonathan was persona non grata in the Northwest, the tumultuous response to him at the rally was a mark of a rising acceptance in the region.
Attahiru Dalhatu Bafarawa, left the governorship of Sokoto State in 2007 at the end of his second tenure, following the defeat of his party, DPP. It was the first election in Sokoto State that was lost by a ruling party, in circumstances that were in certain quarters thought to demystify Bafarwa and mark the end of his political dominance. But Bafarwa is not a politician too easily diminished.
He has against all odds retained a substantial part of his following and clout. And the impressive reception Bafarawa got at the event left not many in doubt as to his currency in the politics of Sokoto State.
The Sokoto flag off is the third of major political gatherings held at the historic city in the last couple of months. Former Governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, being first to seize the initiative, used his own APC rally as an exhibition of his self-proclaimed sole dominance of Sokoto politics, when he declared that the people of Sokoto belonged to him. A subsequent reception for Tambuwal however raised serious questions about that claim, as far as crowds go.
If indeed, crowds are the yardstick for determining political superiority, the PDP presidential flag off in Sokoto translates into a big loss for Wamakko and other APC leaders in the Northwest. For, it is one of the developments that cast huge doubts on the assumed unquestionable loyalty for their party in the zone.
Responses to the event from the APC enclave are symptomatic of the fears in those quarters of the rising profile of PDP and its leaders and the acceptance they are rapidly gaining in many APC strongholds.
If PDP is gaining a foothold in the minds of the people, it is the ruling party that has handed the opposition the privilege on a platter of gold. In record time, the APC has accomplished against itself, what it usually takes parties in power eight years to achieve.
In spite of the academic denials to the fact advanced by the administration, Nigerian masses are without argument, worse off in the last three years than they can ever recall.
While the debate goes on about whether the insurgency in the Northeast has been defeated (technically or not), the security situation in the Northwest is more dire than it has ever been. Daily bandit attacks on whole communities, kidnappings and robberies have put the sub region under the rule of the gun. And as hundreds of lives are lost to the unmitigated madness, the people have turned deaf to the political explanations of the APC to the mayhem.
There is a limit to how far a people can be taken for granted. And as the 2019 general elections approach, the Sokoto flag off will prove to be one of many indicators that Nigerians are not listening to worn out excuses for failure: a clear a clear sign of changes in the dynamics of Nigerian politics that will make the events of 2015 a mere spec in memory, not to repeat themselves again.
Shekara is the Director General, Media and Public Affairs to the Sokoto State Governor
