After predicting the presidential election results, starting this week, I’m going to do region by region review to see where I got the digits right; and where possible, extract insights from the numbers. I will also share opinions of friends on the social media.
My prediction: 32.5% of votes for PMB
Actual: 33.0% of votes for PMB
In the entire country, President Buhari fell short of 25% in only three states. Expectedly all the three states are in the South. Unexpectedly, only one of those states is in the Niger Delta. That’s how well he performed in this region.
Even in Rivers State where PMB got only 23.47% of the votes (150,710) as against Atiku’s 73.81% (473,971), APC claimed through Barrister Keyamo that it was because their supporters were not allowed to vote.
Even Bayelsa gave Buhari 36.93% (118,821) as against Atiku’s 61.51% (197,933).
Cross River:Buhari, 27.8% (117,302); Atiku, 70.1% (295,737).
Delta State: Buhari, 26.67% (221,292); Atiku, 71.59% (594,068).
Edo State: Buhari, 47.77% (267,842); Atiku, 49.17 ;275,691).
Akwa Ibom: Buhari, 30.31% (175,429); Atiku,68.39% (395,832).
What was my prediction before the election?
“Atiku will win South-south,” I wrote. “But Buhari will get at least 25%; cumulatively, he is likely to get 30 to 35%. It’s an improvement; better than the 58,000 votes he got from Akwa Ibom against Jonathan’s 950,000 in 2015.”
Cumulatively I predicted Buhari would get “30 to 35%” and the actual percentage was 33.0. Therefore, my prediction was accurate for Niger Delta.
Even Rivers state that was a disappointment, I did write: “Sadly, Amaechi wasn’t of much help then [in 2015] and he isn’t going to be now in Rivers.”
Why do you think Buhari performed better this time?
Here are some answers from my friends on the social media:
They must have seen some infrastructural developments. I spoke with one person from Uyo and he said, to him Buhari is better even though performed below expectations.
Dr. Salisu Garba:
People were allowed to vote relatively. The million votes recorded for GEJ in 2015 weren’t forthcoming for Waziri.
Malam Lawan Bappah:
I don’t know if it will make sense. But I think the difference between Buhari and Atiku is quite more than that between him and Jonathan in 2015. Can I say he performed better this time?
Ibrahim San Turaki:
Sincerity of purpose.
It’s now time for more work and prayers. So as to shame awan ota ile ati ti tita. They will stop at nothing to discredit or frustrate the government
Hamzah Muhammad Isah:
It’s safe to say in the past before the introduction of the card reader, most places in the South South barely held elections, it was more a case of vote allocation than voting, which means the results from the past was not a true reflection of the voters choice. Also his administration has been kind to the SS, the Ogoni oil clean up is just one of many projects being executed there, so the non biased voters from that region decided this guy is not that bad afterall methinks
Dr. Mustapha Bello:
I think Buhari did not perform any better in actual sense; rather, being in government enabled him to reduce to minimal level the rigging machinery of the PDP there. So what he did was to reduce the overall denominator most of which will have gone to the PDP; by doing that, Buhari’s proportional performance will be seen to have gone up even though in actual sense there might not have been any actual increase.
It is also possible that Atiku’s declaration to sell the NNPC contributed to this. The NNPC is seen by a lot of Niger Deltans as theirs naturally, a patrimony. The polling results from all the NNPC estates show that Atiku got almost zero votes.
You did really get it right.
Well, as for why he performed better; there are factors that contributed to dat.
1) he is the president.
2) there is relatively a high number of (APC) high profile politicians in d SS compared to 2015
3) both candidates are not from SS
4) some are resentful of what happened in 2015, in essence the role Atiku played
5) The negative believe in South that Buhari will do this that if he emerged in 2015 is not as pronounced as now….
So, many factors contributed.
Abubakar Alhaji Ahmad:
Buhari did better this time because election truly held. 2015 election in those areas was by ‘allotment’ similar to fertilizer distribution. You’ll notice that while most states had low voter turnout, theirs was exceptionally high. There were areas that recorded 100%.
I think those guys in the ND, despite their gra-gra nature can clearly discern someone who is willing to play fair from a pretender. Yes, he might not have done much quickly but they can fathom someone who, if relieved from the shackles of that dreaded cabal could do well on providing more developmental projects to their region. My prayer is that PMB will not disappoint those of us who believe in him and his ability to work really hard to let all parts of the country to feel a sense of belonging.
Nura Z. Abbas:
Elections held for the first time in SS states.
Why PMB performed better in Rivers state
1.Use of card readers & result sheets at poling units, unlike in the past when result sheets are usually filled elsewhere.
2.The EFCC effect due to the prosecution & conviction of some top election riggers(INEC staff)during the 2015 election (Gesilah Khan &other beneficiaries of the Deziani bribe)
- The main contestants are not from Niger Delta
- Fear of snatching ballot box & get killed threat by PMB.
- Army 6th Division didn’t give room for Gov. Wike to execute his plans of using thugs in disrupting the polls in most places after failing to induce them financially.
Dr. Ziya Mukhtar:
I think his main rival being a Northerner helped; especially in regards the number of votes in the SE/SS. A lot of positives in infrastructural development and security despite some challenges.
PDP’s team had a lot of elements that I think worked against them in the North; people actually remember politician’s utterances.